Rupee is weakening. Time to send money back home to India?

The Indian rupee is plunging against the US Dollar. There are three primary drivers:

  1. President Modi's interim budget, which includes handouts for farmers and tax cuts for the lower and middle classes, is being viewed as negative for India's fiscal outlook, and could threaten the country's sovereign debt rating.

  2. Oil prices continue to tick higher. India imports 80 per cent of its petroleum needs, so rising fuel prices are net-negative for the rupee.

  3. The strengthening USD. Despite the dovish Fed meeting last week, the USD has based and investors once again seem keen to own the US Dollars.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar remains steady above 72 US cents after yesterday's slightly hawkish RBA meeting. After initially rising from 0.7205 to 0.7250, the currency has stayed range-bound.

Analysts predict the AUD's upward momentum will remain capped around 73 US cents. However, an ongoing weakness of the rupee would lead to higher AUD/INR.

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